Skin in the game
It's good to have a little skin in the game of life. So I want to make some predictions.
1. Right now AI models are sufficiently new and powerful enough that the government is stepping in. We will suffer through this for another couple of years and then largely get over it. It's new, but we've seen this song and dance with internet technologies before. Intelligence will be abundant and we will adjust.
2. Local models and open-weight models will get better, more capable, and cheaper, but so will frontier. That doesn't seem to be slowing down yet, and I don't think it will for a while. This will lead to more specialized models we run for specific use cases. For example, I'd love a great local linux devsecops model that I just have run/guard my linux machines.
3. Data continues to be the moat. What you have that no one else does and what you aggregate and manage for AIs will matter more than legacy software features. For SaaS, especially, this is all that matters. Features are a commodity now.
4. We have AGI and the world hasn't ended yet. This tells us that it's less about intelligence and more about harnessing it. Right now everything else is catching up. It will happen quickly, but that's the bottleneck right now.
5. The AI boom is forcing us to invest in critical infrastructure at just the right time. We will end up benefiting more from second-order effects of abundant cheap power than we will from AI by itself. At the end of the day, power is everything to societies.
It's good to have a little skin in the game of life. So I want to make some predictions.
1. Right now AI models are sufficiently new and powerful enough that the government is stepping in. We will suffer through this for another couple of years and then largely get over it. It's new, but we've seen this song and dance with internet technologies before. Intelligence will be abundant and we will adjust.
2. Local models and open-weight models will get better, more capable, and cheaper, but so will frontier. That doesn't seem to be slowing down yet, and I don't think it will for a while. This will lead to more specialized models we run for specific use cases. For example, I'd love a great local linux devsecops model that I just have run/guard my linux machines.
3. Data continues to be the moat. What you have that no one else does and what you aggregate and manage for AIs will matter more than legacy software features. For SaaS, especially, this is all that matters. Features are a commodity now.
4. We have AGI and the world hasn't ended yet. This tells us that it's less about intelligence and more about harnessing it. Right now everything else is catching up. It will happen quickly, but that's the bottleneck right now.
5. The AI boom is forcing us to invest in critical infrastructure at just the right time. We will end up benefiting more from second-order effects of abundant cheap power than we will from AI by itself. At the end of the day, power is everything to societies.
